Complexity or Diversity?

Pick one

The farther we progress into a complex, systems-based society, the more evident will be the problem of those who cannot compete.

Our “Progressive,” unionized education system,  peopled by the statistically dumbest cohort in any college or university, insistent on leaving millions of kids illiterate and innumerate, is adding to this problem, the opposite of what it was designed for and is expected to do.

But it is not our below-par and unionized education system, alone, demonstrating the problem, other than by its existence setting expectations that are increasingly difficult to meet.

The absurd idea that brain evolution doesn’t matter, that those whose cultures never progressed from the Neolithic, that those who never envisioned modernity - and therefore never built it and cannot maintain it, those whose societies remained in stasis as the West progressed, unmatched, for millennia, can be substituted for those who did envision and then build modernity, without impact to our complex society, is both demonstrably false (see: S Africa) and ONLY can result in the accelerating decline we see all around us.

It only will, because it only can, worsen as we progress into an ever-more systems-based, complex future.

Every thinking person knows this; too many, however, refuse to admit it for ideological reasons.

The social and civilizational cancers of Affirmative Action, DIE, 1619, the oxymoron of “anti-racism,” prioritize what is not and can never be possible: the prioritization of anything over merit while expecting continued progress of our incredibly complex society.

The resulting norms have steadily eroded institutional competency, causing America’s complex systems to fail with increasing regularity. In the language of a systems theorist, by decreasing the competency of the actors within the system, formerly stable systems have begun to experience normal accidents at a rate that is faster than the system can adapt. The prognosis is harsh but clear: either selection for competence will return or America will experience devolution to more primitive forms of civilization and loss of geopolitical power.*

As the screenwriter noted in Dirty Harry, decades ago: “A man’s got to know his limitations.” So does society.

The support - and demand - for meritocracy, and the resistance to what we euphemistically call “diversity,” but is in fact damaging racism, is spread more broadly than many realize:

The most notable example of a diverse meritocracy is Vista Equity Partners, the large private equity firm founded by Robert F. Smith, America’s wealthiest black man. Robert F. Smith is one of the most vocal advocates for and philanthropists to historically black U.S. colleges and universities. It would be reasonable to expect Vista to prioritize diversity over competency in its portfolio companies. However, Vista has instead been profiled for giving all portfolio company management teams the Criteria Cognitive Aptitude Test and ruthlessly culling low-performers. Given the amount of value to be created by promoting the best people into leadership roles of their portfolio companies, one might imagine this to be low-hanging fruit for the rest of private equity, yet Vista is an outlier. Why Vista can apply the CCAT without a public outcry is obvious.*

We allow our ruling elites to reject brain evolution and the advancement and safety of society for their own power. Yet we continue to expect competence in our systems.

These are irreconcilable.

Today, the majority of U.S. colleges have either stopped requiring SAT/ACT scores, no longer require them for students in the top 10 percent of their class, or will no longer consider them. Several elite law schools, including Harvard Law School, no longer require the LSAT as of 2023. With thousands of unqualified law students headed to a bar exam that they are unlikely to pass, the National Conference of Bar Examiners is already planning to dilute the bar exam under the “NextGen” plan. Specifically, “eliminat[ing] any aspects of our exams that could contribute to performance disparities” will almost definitionally reduce the degree to which the exam tests for competency.

Similarly, standards used to select doctors have also been weakened to promote diversity. Programs such as the City College of New York’s BS/MD program have eliminated the MCAT requirement. With the SAT now optional, new candidates can go straight from high school to the United States Medical Licensing Examination Step 1 exam in medical school without having gone through any rigorous standardized test whose score can be compared across schools. Step 1 scores were historically the most significant factor in the National Residency Matching Program, which pairs soon-to-be doctors with their future residency training programs. Because Step 1 scores serve as a barrier to increasing diversity, they have been made pass/fail. A handful of doctors are speaking out about the dangers of picking doctors based on factors other than competency but most either explicitly prefer diversity or else stay silent, concerned about the career-ending repercussions of pointing out the obvious.*

If we want to survive as a systems-based society, perhaps even as a free country, let alone continue our progress, this will be recognized and acted upon, either formally or informally.

Following three completely avoidable collisions of U.S. Navy warships in 2017 and a fire in 2020 that resulted in the scuttling of USS Bonhomme Richard, a $750 million amphibious assault craft, two retired marines conducted off-the-record interviews with 77 current and retired Navy officers. One recurring theme was the prioritization of diversity training over ship handling and warfighting preparedness. Many of them openly admit that, given current issues, the U.S. would likely lose an open naval engagement with China. Instead of taking the criticism to heart, the Navy commissioned “Task Force One Navy,” which recommended deemphasizing or eliminating meritocratic tests like the Officer Aptitude Rating to boost diversity. Absent an existential challenge, U.S. military preparedness is likely to continue to degrade.*

The immediate consequences to how we react to these facts only will be the level of violence that comes with that recognition, and the acceptance that evolution matters. The later and less-formal the recognition, the greater the violence.

The longer-term consequence will be the success or failure of Western Civilization.

Americans living today are the inheritors of systems that created the highest standard of living in human history. Rather than protecting the competency that made those systems possible, the modern preference for diversity has attenuated meritocratic evaluation at all levels of American society. Given the damage already done to competence and morale combined with the natural exodus of baby boomers a[nd] decades worth of tacit knowledge, the biggest challenge of the coming decades might simply be maintaining the systems we have today. *

As a society we will need to choose our path forward: merit…  or anti-merit?

The path of least resistance will be the devolution of complex systems and the reduction in the quality of life that entails. For the typical resident in a second-tier city in Mexico, Brazil, or South Africa, power outages are not uncommon, tap water is probably not safe to drink, and hospital-associated infections are common and often fatal. Absent a step change in the quality of American governance and a renewed culture of excellence, they prefigure the country’s future.

Brain evolution isn’t going away and cannot be adjusted via policy; only its impacts.

*https://www.palladiummag.com/2023/06/01/complex-systems-wont-survive-the-competence-crisis